🚨 Alert #4776 Wed Sep-16 13:02:53
Broadcom's custom inference ASIC for OpenAI reportedly outperforms Nvidia's Rubin architecture in performance-per-watt, signaling increased competition in the AI chip market.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AVGO | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AVGO (product: Broadcom's custom inference ASIC for OpenAI reportedly outperforms Nvidia's Rubin architecture in performance-per-watt, signaling increased competition in the AI chip market.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S3 short AVGO decision 19403] |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close -0.32% |
| S4 | AVGO | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long AVGO at close, exit next close (product: Broadcom's custom inference ASIC for OpenAI reportedly outperforms Nvidia's Rubin architecture in performance-per-watt, signaling increased competition in the AI chip market.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 85 long (decision 19348) for S4 AVGO exiting 2026-09-17] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AVGO | ▲ long | 2 | 342.19 | 340.12 | -4.14 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO S1 | +0.55% | -0.82% | Signal: Wrong over the holding window — the bullish call saw only +0.55% at best before rolling over, and price ended below entry; note the window was truncated by the netting close, so the full-horizon signal isn't fully testable from this data. Timing: Partially late — the stock was already +0.70% off the prior close at decision time, and the fill at 342.19 was another ~0.16% higher, so some of the news move was consumed before entry. Exit: The -0.60% exit landed near the worst unrealized (-0.82%) and well below the +0.55% peak, but this exit wasn't a strategy judgment — it was a mechanical netting against an opposing short signal (decision 19403). Dominant factor: the entry rationale simply didn't play out — price declined after entry — with the forced netting exit locking in a loss near the trough. The presence of a simultaneous opposing S3 short signal on the same ticker is itself a notable fact for the retrospective. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.