🚨 Alert #374 Tue Jul-21 17:51:14
Court filings and internal emails reveal Amazon allegedly pressured suppliers to raise prices on rival retail sites, leading to legal scrutiny and claims of anti-competitive behavior.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> sell AMZN (regulatory: Court filings and internal emails reveal Amazon allegedly pressured suppliers to raise prices on rival retail sites, leading to legal scrutiny and claims of anti-competitive behavior.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | AMZN | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: sell AMZN at close, exit next close (regulatory: Court filings and internal emails reveal Amazon allegedly pressured suppliers to raise prices on rival retail sites, leading to legal scrutiny and claims of anti-competitive behavior.) [skipped at close: signal conflict — wanted sell but open S4 buy AMZN exiting 2026-07-22] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ▼ short | 4 | 247.76 | 247.50 | +1.04 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN S1 | +0.19% | -0.42% | Comparison: The entry treated a regulatory headline as a FRESH bearish catalyst, but the outcome was noise — a +1.04 USD scratch on a stock that moved less than half a percent either way, with the adverse excursion (-0.42%) actually exceeding the favorable one (+0.19%). Regulatory/antitrust stories on mega-caps like AMZN are slow-burn narratives that rarely produce tradeable intraday moves, so the "FRESH" verdict overstated the signal's immediacy. Improvement: Add a materiality gate for regulatory catalysts — only trade them if paired with price/volume confirmation (e.g., the stock is already down >1% on elevated volume), or downgrade regulatory-category news to a lower verdict tier that requires a second confirming signal before entry. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.