🚨 Alert #3701 Mon Aug-31 19:59:24
TSMC reported a 77% surge in Q2 net income and raised its 2026 capital spending forecast to a record $64 billion amid strong AI chip demand.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (earnings: TSMC reported a 77% surge in Q2 net income and raised its 2026 capital spending forecast to a record $64 billion amid strong AI chip demand.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close +1.09% |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC reported a 77% surge in Q2 net income and raised its 2026 capital spending forecast to a record $64 billion amid strong AI chip demand.) |
📈 Trades
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +0.19% | -0.15% | Signal/timing: The bullish call produced essentially no move — the stock was already down 0.59% from prior close despite the "FRESH" earnings verdict, and while open it never traded more than ±0.2% either way. The negative drift at entry suggests the earnings pop was likely already priced in, though the data here can't confirm exactly when that move occurred. Exit: The exit was actually good relative to what was available — +0.12% captured out of a +0.19% max favorable excursion, so nearly the full (tiny) opportunity was taken. Dominant factor: Stale signal. The trade was flat-to-noise because the earnings news apparently had no remaining directional energy; the entry rationale's "FRESH" label is contradicted by the price action. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.