🚨 Alert #3604 Fri Aug-28 19:50:53
Meta settled a multi-state lawsuit regarding teen safety for up to $17.1 billion, significantly less than the $1.4 trillion in potential penalties feared by investors.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long META (regulatory: Meta settled a multi-state lawsuit regarding teen safety for up to $17.1 billion, significantly less than the $1.4 trillion in potential penalties feared by investors.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | META | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long META at close, exit next close (regulatory: Meta settled a multi-state lawsuit regarding teen safety for up to $17.1 billion, significantly less than the $1.4 trillion in potential penalties feared by investors.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ▲ long | 1 | 574.80 | 578.08 | +3.28 | closed |
| S4 | META | ▲ long | 1 | 578.53 | 572.04 | -6.49 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| META S1 | +0.60% | -0.14% | Signal: Right — the bullish read on the settlement paid off; the stock rose after entry. Timing: Partially late — about +0.70% of the move had already occurred by decision time (entry 574.8 vs. prior close 571.10), though a comparable further leg (+0.57%) remained. Exit: Efficient — the +3.28 P&L (+0.57%) captured essentially all of the +0.60% best unrealized gain, with minimal drawdown (-0.14%). Dominant factor: a correct signal with a near-optimal exit; the only mild drag was entering after part of the news-driven pop, which capped the size of the available move. |
| META S4 | +6.65% | -1.94% | Signal: Right — the predicted upward drift materialized in a big way, with the position up as much as +6.65% while open. Timing: The stock was already +0.70% off the prior close at decision time and the fill at 578.53 was ~1.3% above prev close, so some of the move was paid for at entry, though this was minor relative to the intraday peak. Exit: This is the dominant factor — the mechanical next-close exit gave back the entire +6.65% (~$38) of unrealized gain and closed at a -$6.49 loss, capturing none of what was available. Blunt diagnosis: correct signal, wasted by a hold-to-close exit that rode a large gain into a loss. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.