🚨 Alert #342 Tue Jul-21 16:02:26
AMD is preparing for its Advancing AI Summit with potential new product launches and Microsoft Azure integration that could challenge Nvidia's market dominance.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +4.79% · Δ 30m -0.70% · px 527.69 (prev 503.57) → close +3.13% |
| S2 | MSFT | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> buy MSFT (product: AMD is preparing for its Advancing AI Summit with potential new product launches and Microsoft Azure integration that could challenge Nvidia's market dominance.) |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.35% · Δ 30m +0.30% · px 206.02 (prev 203.28) → close +0.69% |
| S4 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +4.79% · Δ 30m -0.70% · px 527.69 (prev 503.57) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S2 | MSFT | ▲ long | 2 | 398.62 | 397.49 | -2.26 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT S2 | +0.33% | -0.29% | Entry vs. outcome: The rationale was really an AMD catalyst (their AI Summit and product launches), but the trade bought MSFT — a second-order beneficiary at best — so the "REPRICING" verdict was applied to the wrong ticker, and the trade predictably chopped sideways (max ±0.3%) before bleeding out for -$2.26. There was no actual repricing thesis for MSFT itself; Azure integration news is priced-in background noise for a $3T company. Concrete improvement: Require the traded ticker to be the primary subject of the catalyst — reject or downgrade the verdict to WATCH when the instrument is only mentioned as a partner/beneficiary. Alternatively, add a materiality filter: skip REPRICING trades where the catalyst plausibly moves the target's market cap by less than ~1%. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.