🚨 Alert #3386 Wed Aug-26 20:40:59
Meta Platforms agreed to pay up to $16.68 billion to settle claims by 29 U.S. states regarding child addiction and data privacy, avoiding a potentially larger penalty and jury trial.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long META (regulatory: Meta Platforms agreed to pay up to $16.68 billion to settle claims by 29 U.S. states regarding child addiction and data privacy, avoiding a potentially larger penalty and jury trial.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, conflict-hold — mat 85 ties incumbent S1 short META, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close +0.28% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | META | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long META at close, exit next close (regulatory: Meta Platforms agreed to pay up to $16.68 billion to settle claims by 29 U.S. states regarding child addiction and data privacy, avoiding a potentially larger penalty and jury trial.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | META | ▲ long | 1 | 578.19 | 571.33 | -6.86 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| META S4 | +1.66% | -1.69% | Signal: Wrong over the holding window — the position lost ground from entry to exit, so the predicted overnight drift didn't materialize in the direction bet. Timing: The move had largely already happened — entry at 578.19 was ~1.4% above the prior close of 570.05, meaning the trade bought the settlement-news pop rather than getting ahead of it, and the position then reverted. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit gave back everything available — the trade saw +1.66% unrealized at its best but exited near the worst (-1.19% realized vs. -1.69% trough). The dominant factor is timing: the entry chased a news move that was already priced in, and the fixed-close exit compounded it by holding through the reversal instead of capturing the intraday gain that briefly existed. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.