🚨 Alert #3377 Wed Aug-26 20:10:58
TSMC reported a 44.7% year-over-year increase in July revenue and raised third-quarter revenue guidance, signaling continued strong demand for advanced-node AI chips.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (earnings: TSMC reported a 44.7% year-over-year increase in July revenue and raised third-quarter revenue guidance, signaling continued strong demand for advanced-node AI chips.) |
| S2 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close -0.77% |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -0.69% |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC reported a 44.7% year-over-year increase in July revenue and raised third-quarter revenue guidance, signaling continued strong demand for advanced-node AI chips.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 418.36 | 417.08 | -2.56 | closed |
| S4 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 417.08 | 426.96 | +19.76 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +0.01% | -0.31% | Signal: Wrong, at least over the holding window — the bullish thesis never materialized; the stock drifted down and the best the position ever showed was +0.01%. Timing: The data doesn't show a pre-entry run-up (only +0.21% since prev close at decision time), so this wasn't a case of chasing a completed move — though whether the news was already priced in from an earlier session can't be settled from what's here. Exit: The -0.31% loss matches the worst unrealized exactly, meaning the exit hit the bottom tick of the trade's range, but with a max upside of +0.01% there was essentially nothing available to capture. Dominant factor: signal failure — the predicted bullish move simply never occurred. |
| TSM S4 | +3.00% | -0.02% | Signal: correct — the earnings-driven bullish call played out, with the position gaining +2.37% (417.08 → 426.96). Timing: the move had not already happened; price was only +0.21% off the prior close at decision time and entry was essentially at the prior close, with worst unrealized of just -0.02% confirming near-zero adverse drift. Exit: solid but not perfect — the trade captured +2.37% of a +3.00% peak, giving back roughly 0.6 points to the mechanical next-close exit; the dominant factor here is simply a correct signal with clean timing, and the exit left only a modest amount on the table. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.