Mon Aug-31 19:03:27
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #3250 Tue Aug-25 16:21:09
Tesla Stock vs SpaceX: Which Holds Up Better in 2026
Tesla reported Q2 2026 earnings that missed analyst consensus on EPS and saw operating margins compress significantly, while guiding to negative free cash flow due to surging capital expenditures.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short TSLA (earnings: Tesla reported Q2 2026 earnings that missed analyst consensus on EPS and saw operating margins compress significantly, while guiding to negative free cash flow due to surging capital expenditures.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 short TSLA exiting 2026-08-25] → close -0.56% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short TSLA at close, exit next close (earnings: Tesla reported Q2 2026 earnings that missed analyst consensus on EPS and saw operating margins compress significantly, while guiding to negative free cash flow due to surging capital expenditures.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 85 long (decision 13068) for S4 TSLA exiting 2026-08-26] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.