🚨 Alert #3006 Fri Aug-21 13:10:33
AMD's share of x86 client CPU shipments reached a record 30.3% in Q2, continuing to erode Intel's market dominance amid strong overall sector growth.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMD (other: AMD's share of x86 client CPU shipments reached a record 30.3% in Q2, continuing to erode Intel's market dominance amid strong overall sector growth.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | AMD | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long AMD at close, exit next close (other: AMD's share of x86 client CPU shipments reached a record 30.3% in Q2, continuing to erode Intel's market dominance amid strong overall sector growth.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 long (decision 12052) for S4 AMD exiting 2026-08-24] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ▲ long | 2 | 477.26 | 473.92 | -6.68 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMD S1 | -0.58% | -2.95% | Signal/timing: The bullish thesis never played out over the holding period — the trade was underwater the entire time (best unrealized was still -0.58%). Timing looks like the dominant problem: the market-share news is the kind that gets priced quickly, AMD was already +0.99% at decision time, and the fill at 477.26 was another ~0.7% above that, so the entry chased a move that had largely happened. Exit: The exit was actually decent — closing at -0.70% versus a worst unrealized of -2.95% captured most of what was salvageable, given nothing positive was ever available. Dominant factor: Stale entry into an already-extended move; whether the underlying bullish signal was flat-out wrong or just fully priced in can't be settled from this window alone, but there was no upside available to capture from this entry price. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.