verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (m&a: Nvidia is in discussions to acquire AI chip startup Rebellions to strengthen its position in the semiconductor market.)
overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (m&a: Nvidia is in discussions to acquire AI chip startup Rebellions to strengthen its position in the semiconductor market.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 85 long (decision 12296) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-08-24]
Signal: Wrong — the bullish M&A call never materialized; the stock topped out at just +0.33% above entry before sliding. Timing: Entry was ~0.4% above the prior close after a modest +0.57% overnight move, so a small amount of the anticipated pop may have been priced in, but the data doesn't show a large pre-entry run-up — timing wasn't the main issue. Exit: The -1.27% realized loss (-$11.08) was near the worst unrealized of -1.43%, meaning the exit gave up nearly the full drawdown, but with only +0.33% ever available there was little upside to capture regardless. Dominant factor: a bad signal — the predicted direction was simply wrong.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
