Mon Aug-31 19:04:17
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #2980 Thu Aug-20 19:20:37
Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) Nearly Doubles Revenue To $39 Billion In Fiscal 2026, Targets Full Data Center Dominance
Super Micro Computer reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $39.1 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year, with Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.70 and a record backlog exceeding $60 billion.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | SMCI | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long SMCI (earnings: Super Micro Computer reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $39.1 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year, with Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.70 and a record backlog exceeding $60 billion.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long SMCI exiting 2026-08-20] → close -0.40% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close -0.11% |
| S4 | SMCI | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long SMCI at close, exit next close (earnings: Super Micro Computer reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $39.1 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year, with Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.70 and a record backlog exceeding $60 billion.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | SMCI | ▲ long | 27 | 36.46 | 37.27 | +21.87 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMCI S4 | +2.78% | -0.23% | Signal: right. The long call worked — price rose +2.2% from entry to exit, and the pre-entry context (-0.03% since prior close) shows the move had not already occurred by entry, so timing was fine. Exit: good. The mechanical next-close exit captured +2.22% of a maximum +2.78% unrealized gain, with negligible adverse excursion (-0.23%), i.e., roughly 80% of the best available move. Dominant factor: a correct directional signal cleanly harvested; note the data can't confirm the earnings news was the actual driver of the drift, only that the predicted direction played out. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.