verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (product: Nvidia is developing a new AI chip specifically designed to comply with US export restrictions and regain market share in China.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long NVDA exiting 2026-08-20] → close -0.24%
overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (product: Nvidia is developing a new AI chip specifically designed to comply with US export restrictions and regain market share in China.)
Signal: Partially right — the long thesis did materialize intraday, with the position up as much as +3.37%, but the move fully reversed by the close, so over the actual holding horizon (close-to-close) the direction was wrong. Timing: No evidence the move was already spent at entry — price was roughly flat versus prior close (-0.24%), so this wasn't a chase. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit is the dominant factor: it left the entire +3.37% peak on the table and locked in -0.77% (-$6.64), capturing near the worst of the range (-1.39% trough) rather than any of the available upside. The rationale's China-chip catalyst may have driven the intraday pop, but the data here can't confirm that attribution.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
