Mon Aug-31 19:06:00
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #2903 Wed Aug-19 16:00:19
ARM Sells Its Own Silicon
ARM announced plans to design and sell its own AI data center microprocessors, with Meta identified as an early customer, introducing a new competitor to Nvidia's dominant position in AI hardware.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.05% | +0.77% | 217.07 | 221.80 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | PRICED | -4.74% | +0.69% | 358.32 | 380.89 | |
| peer AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -3.84% | -0.21% | 463.50 | 488.88 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.81% | +0.76% | 158.63 | 166.18 | |
| counterparty META | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.02% | +0.31% | 539.95 | 553.68 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short NVDA (product: ARM announced plans to design and sell its own AI data center microprocessors, with Meta identified as an early customer, introducing a new competitor to Nvidia's dominant position in AI hardware.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 long NVDA, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close -1.16% |
| S2 | META | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -0.61% |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close +0.22% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short NVDA at close, exit next close (product: ARM announced plans to design and sell its own AI data center microprocessors, with Meta identified as an early customer, introducing a new competitor to Nvidia's dominant position in AI hardware.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 85 long (decision 11636) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-08-20] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.