🚨 Alert #2869 Wed Aug-19 13:04:49
Nvidia has received approval to ship limited batches of H200 AI chips to Chinese tech giants ByteDance and Tencent, signaling a partial easing of export restrictions.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (regulatory: Nvidia has received approval to ship limited batches of H200 AI chips to Chinese tech giants ByteDance and Tencent, signaling a partial easing of export restrictions.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S3 short NVDA decision 11679] |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close -2.65% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (regulatory: Nvidia has received approval to ship limited batches of H200 AI chips to Chinese tech giants ByteDance and Tencent, signaling a partial easing of export restrictions.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 85 long (decision 11636) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-08-20] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ▲ long | 4 | 222.07 | 218.86 | -12.84 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S1 | +0.03% | -2.31% | Signal: The bullish call never materialized — best unrealized was just +0.03% while worst hit -2.31%, so the stock went essentially nowhere but down during the holding period. Timing: The rationale was flagged FRESH and price context showed no prior move (+0.02% since prev close), yet the fill at 222.07 was ~1.1% above the 219.74 prev close, indicating the pop happened between decision and fill — the entry bought into a move that had already partially run. Exit: The exit was a mechanical netting against an opposing short (not a signal-based close), landing at -1.45%, better than the -2.31% worst but with effectively zero upside ever available to capture. Dominant factor: bad signal — the direction was simply wrong for the duration held, though the early forced close means we can't know if the thesis would have played out later. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.