🚨 Alert #2808 Tue Aug-18 15:40:06
Tesla secured an order for 500 Semi electric trucks from freight company Einride, marking its largest deployment to date with vehicles intended to haul freight for customers including Amazon.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSLA (product: Tesla secured an order for 500 Semi electric trucks from freight company Einride, marking its largest deployment to date with vehicles intended to haul freight for customers including Amazon.) |
| S2 | AMZN | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMZN → close -0.88% |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long TSLA at close, exit next close (product: Tesla secured an order for 500 Semi electric trucks from freight company Einride, marking its largest deployment to date with vehicles intended to haul freight for customers including Amazon.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 75 long (decision 11420) for S4 TSLA exiting 2026-08-19] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ▲ long | 2 | 338.00 | 336.74 | -2.52 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA S1 | +0.64% | -0.81% | Signal: Wrong — the bullish call didn't play out; the stock drifted down and the trade closed at -0.37%. Timing: Not the issue — entry at 338.0 was slightly below the prior close (-0.41% on the day, only +0.42% in the prior 30m), so the trade wasn't chasing a move that had already occurred. Exit: Middling — the exit at -0.37% sat between the best (+0.64%) and worst (-0.81%) unrealized, so a small gain was briefly available but the exit neither captured it nor took the full drawdown. Dominant factor: signal failure — the news-driven bullish thesis simply didn't produce upward movement during the holding period. (Whether the catalyst was stale or already priced in before the day shown can't be determined from this data.) |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.