overnight drift: long AMD at close, exit next close (partnership: AMD is partnering with Cerebras to combine Helios racks with CS systems for a throughput boost, while Nvidia's large Intel stake was disclosed.)
Signal: wrong. The long thesis (positive AMD/Cerebras partnership drift) failed outright — the stock fell ~4.2% from entry to exit, and the tiny +0.55% best unrealized shows there was never a meaningful upside move to capture. Timing: the stock was only modestly down (-1.01% since prev close) at decision time, so the loss wasn't a case of chasing a move that had already occurred; the damage happened during the hold. Exit: the mechanical next-close exit (-4.25%) landed between the best (+0.55%) and worst (-5.89%) unrealized, so it neither foreseeably worsened nor rescued the trade — the dominant factor is simply a wrong directional call.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
