🚨 Alert #2535 Thu Aug-13 15:10:53
Super Micro Computer reported Q4 earnings that significantly beat estimates and issued strong guidance for fiscal 2027, driving a surge in its stock price.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | SMCI | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +7.05% · Δ 30m +2.86% · px 40.26 (prev 37.61) → close -2.30% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long NVDA (earnings: Super Micro Computer reported Q4 earnings that significantly beat estimates and issued strong guidance for fiscal 2027, driving a surge in its stock price.) |
| S4 | SMCI | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +7.05% · Δ 30m +2.86% · px 40.26 (prev 37.61) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | NVDA | ▲ long | 4 | 226.33 | 225.22 | -4.44 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S3 | +0.05% | -1.13% | Signal/timing: The predicted bullish direction never materialized after entry — the best unrealized gain was a negligible +0.05%, meaning essentially all of the move (+0.98% from prev close, +0.60% in the prior 30 minutes) had already happened by fill; the trade chased a sympathy pop (SMCI earnings traded via NVDA) with no follow-through. Exit: The exit at -0.49% sat between the extremes (+0.05% / -1.13%), so it cut the loss roughly in half rather than riding to the worst — the exit is not the problem, since there was virtually no upside available to capture. Dominant factor: Timing — entering after the news-driven move was already priced in, leaving the position with no edge; whether the underlying SMCI→NVDA read-through thesis was ever valid can't be settled from this data alone. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.