🚨 Alert #2382 Tue Aug-11 19:00:39
AMD reported a 107% year-over-year increase in data center revenue to $6.7 billion and projected the segment will exceed $13 billion in Q3 2026 driven by AI inference demand.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long AMD (earnings: AMD reported a 107% year-over-year increase in data center revenue to $6.7 billion and projected the segment will exceed $13 billion in Q3 2026 driven by AI inference demand.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, conflict-hold — mat 85 ties incumbent S3 short AMD, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close +1.08% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short NVDA (earnings: AMD reported a 107% year-over-year increase in data center revenue to $6.7 billion and projected the segment will exceed $13 billion in Q3 2026 driven by AI inference demand.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 85 ties incumbent S1 long NVDA, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close +0.10% |
| S4 | AMD | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long AMD at close, exit next close (earnings: AMD reported a 107% year-over-year increase in data center revenue to $6.7 billion and projected the segment will exceed $13 billion in Q3 2026 driven by AI inference demand.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | AMD | ▲ long | 2 | 474.69 | 481.97 | +14.56 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMD S4 | +3.52% | -0.29% | Signal: Right — the long earnings-drift call worked; the position closed +1.53% with minimal adverse excursion (worst −0.29%). Timing: Partially eroded — decision-time context showed +0.00% vs prev close, but the fill at 474.69 was already +1.09% above prev close (469.56), so roughly 40% of the eventual realized gain occurred between decision and entry. Whether the broader earnings reaction had already played out pre-decision isn't settled by this data. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit captured +1.53% of a +3.52% peak — less than half of the best available, leaving ~$19 unrealized on the table. Dominant factor: correct signal with a give-back-heavy exit; the entry slippage is the secondary drag. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.