🚨 Alert #2299 Mon Aug-10 19:20:31
A U.S. lawmaker has urged the Commerce Department to strictly enforce export controls preventing TSMC from supplying chips to sanctioned Chinese firms like Huawei.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short TSM (regulatory: A U.S. lawmaker has urged the Commerce Department to strictly enforce export controls preventing TSMC from supplying chips to sanctioned Chinese firms like Huawei.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 long TSM, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close -0.31% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close -0.41% |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short TSM at close, exit next close (regulatory: A U.S. lawmaker has urged the Commerce Department to strictly enforce export controls preventing TSMC from supplying chips to sanctioned Chinese firms like Huawei.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | TSM | ▼ short | 2 | 420.14 | 422.63 | -4.98 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S4 | +0.39% | -1.07% | Signal: Wrong. The short thesis (regulatory pressure driving TSM down overnight) didn't materialize — the stock rose ~0.6% from entry to exit. Timing: The data doesn't show a pre-entry down-move being missed; price was actually up +0.35% on the day at decision time, so there's no evidence the predicted move had already happened — it simply never occurred. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit at -0.59% landed between the best (+0.39%) and worst (-1.07%) unrealized marks, so the exit neither missed a meaningful profit window nor caught the worst of it. Dominant factor: bad signal — the direction call was simply wrong. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.