🚨 Alert #2211 Mon Aug-10 14:32:38
Tesla faces increased regulatory scrutiny and public concern after data revealed a record 207 crashes involving its Autopilot or self-driving features in May.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short TSLA (regulatory: Tesla faces increased regulatory scrutiny and public concern after data revealed a record 207 crashes involving its Autopilot or self-driving features in May.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S1 long TSLA decision 8853] |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short TSLA at close, exit next close (regulatory: Tesla faces increased regulatory scrutiny and public concern after data revealed a record 207 crashes involving its Autopilot or self-driving features in May.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 85 short (decision 9036) for S4 TSLA exiting 2026-08-11] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ▼ short | 3 | 327.45 | 328.45 | -3.00 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA S1 | -0.35% | -0.35% | Signal: Wrong over the window observed — TSLA moved up against the short the entire time it was open (best unrealized was also -0.35%; the position was never green). Whether the bearish repricing thesis would have played out over a longer horizon is unknowable here, because the trade was force-closed by netting against an opposing long TSLA decision, not by the thesis resolving. Timing: The stock was already down ~0.65% on the day and ~1% in the prior 30 minutes at entry, so a modest chunk of the anticipated bearish move had occurred pre-fill — but the entry-vs-exit data can't confirm whether the news was fully priced. Exit: Clean — the -$3 realized loss matches the worst (and best) unrealized almost exactly; there was nothing better available to capture. The dominant factor is the signal being wrong while open, compounded by the blunt fact that the system simultaneously held a bullish TSLA decision that outranked and killed this one — the strategy was contradicting itself on the same ticker. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.