🚨 Alert #2203 Mon Aug-10 14:30:30
Microsoft plans to unveil its next-generation Maia 300 AI chip in September and has engaged TSMC to secure manufacturing capacity for over 300,000 units by 2027.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MSFT | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.79% | +0.48% | 498.56 | 512.60 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.50% | -0.62% | 469.22 | 483.00 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.58% | +0.81% | 162.12 | 169.26 | |
| counterparty TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.28% | +0.38% | 417.84 | 425.04 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.14% | +0.24% | 217.00 | 224.91 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.14% | +0.12% | 420.62 | 432.43 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long MSFT (product: Microsoft plans to unveil its next-generation Maia 300 AI chip in September and has engaged TSMC to secure manufacturing capacity for over 300,000 units by 2027.) |
| S2 | TSM | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -0.24% |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -2.72% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long MSFT at close, exit next close (product: Microsoft plans to unveil its next-generation Maia 300 AI chip in September and has engaged TSMC to secure manufacturing capacity for over 300,000 units by 2027.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 long (decision 9180) for S4 MSFT exiting 2026-08-11] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ▲ long | 1 | 506.93 | 506.77 | -0.16 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT S1 | +1.25% | -0.74% | Signal: Right — the stock rose as much as +1.25% after entry, so the bullish read had merit. Timing: Partly late — the fill at 506.93 was already ~1.4% above the prior close (vs. +0.79% at decision time), so some of the move was consumed before entry, though meaningful upside remained afterward. Exit (dominant factor): This is where the trade failed. With +1.25% unrealized (~+6.30 USD) available while open, the trade exited at -0.16 USD — essentially a round trip that captured nothing of a correct call. The data doesn't show why the exit occurred (stop, time limit, or signal reversal), so the mechanism can't be diagnosed from what's here, but the fact is blunt: a right-direction trade gave back all available gains before exit. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.