verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMZN (earnings: Amazon reported Q2 2026 earnings with $200.6 billion in revenue and record AWS growth, beating estimates despite heavy capital expenditure.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long AMZN exiting 2026-08-07] → close +0.21%
overnight drift: long AMZN at close, exit next close (earnings: Amazon reported Q2 2026 earnings with $200.6 billion in revenue and record AWS growth, beating estimates despite heavy capital expenditure.)
Signal: Right — AMZN drifted up post-earnings and the long finished +0.99% (+$8.16). Timing: Partly late — the stock was already +0.95% off the prior close at decision time (fill at 275.5 implies ~+1.2%), so some of the earnings pop was consumed before entry; whether more was "left" is consistent with, but not proven by, this data alone. Exit: The exit captured +0.99% of a +1.63% best unrealized — reasonable — but the position sat through a -6.89% drawdown before recovering, meaning the small realized gain came only after surviving an adverse move roughly 7x its size. The dominant factor is that outsized adverse excursion: the outcome was positive largely because the trade happened to recover by the mechanical exit, not because the risk taken was proportionate to the gain captured.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
