🚨 Alert #2085 Thu Aug-06 17:30:18
Tesla shares plunged 26% in July after its Q2 2026 earnings report showed adjusted EPS missing Wall Street expectations by 35% despite record vehicle deliveries and revenue growth.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short TSLA (earnings: Tesla shares plunged 26% in July after its Q2 2026 earnings report showed adjusted EPS missing Wall Street expectations by 35% despite record vehicle deliveries and revenue growth.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSLA | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short TSLA at close, exit next close (earnings: Tesla shares plunged 26% in July after its Q2 2026 earnings report showed adjusted EPS missing Wall Street expectations by 35% despite record vehicle deliveries and revenue growth.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ▼ short | 3 | 318.74 | 319.73 | -2.97 | closed |
| S4 | TSLA | ▼ short | 3 | 319.97 | 328.44 | -25.41 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA S1 | +0.42% | -0.35% | Timing is the dominant failure. The rationale itself says the 26% plunge already happened "in July after its Q2 earnings report" — that's a completed move, not a fresh signal, so the "FRESH" verdict contradicts the cited evidence, and price was already down 0.88% from prior close at entry. Signal: over the holding period the bearish call was wrong — price drifted up ~0.31% against the short — though whether the broader bearish thesis had any remaining validity can't be settled from this data. Exit: poor capture — the trade exited at -0.31%, near the worst unrealized (-0.35%), after having been up +0.42% at best, so essentially the whole available gain was given back. |
| TSLA S4 | +0.34% | -4.23% | Signal: wrong. The short predicted continued downside, but TSLA rose ~2.6% over the holding period (319.97 → 328.44), and the maximum favorable excursion was only +0.34% versus -4.23% adverse — the trade was essentially never working. Timing: The rationale cites a 26% post-earnings plunge, which suggests the move may have already occurred before entry, but the data here (only -0.88% since prior close at decision time) doesn't establish when the plunge happened relative to entry, so timing can't be settled from this record. Exit: The exit at -2.65% avoided the worst unrealized level (-4.23%), so exit execution salvaged something; but with only +0.34% ever available, no exit could have made this profitable. The dominant factor is a wrong directional signal. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.