🚨 Alert #2003 Wed Aug-05 20:40:26
Microsoft reported strong fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $90.01 billion, driven largely by OpenAI which accounts for approximately 70% of its AI sales.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long MSFT (earnings: Microsoft reported strong fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $90.01 billion, driven largely by OpenAI which accounts for approximately 70% of its AI sales.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, netted, outranked by S3 short MSFT mat 95 (new mat 85)] → close -0.23% |
| S2 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close -0.22% |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | MSFT | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long MSFT at close, exit next close (earnings: Microsoft reported strong fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $90.01 billion, driven largely by OpenAI which accounts for approximately 70% of its AI sales.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | MSFT | ▲ long | 2 | 489.10 | 499.70 | +21.20 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT S4 | +2.19% | -6.66% | Signal: Right — the long earnings-drift call played out, with price rising +2.17% from entry to exit. Timing: The move had not happened by entry (price was slightly down into the close), but the trade endured a severe -6.66% adverse excursion before recovering, so the entry was well ahead of the actual move rather than chasing it. Exit: Near-perfect capture — the +2.17% realized gain matches the +2.19% best unrealized almost exactly. Dominant factor: exit execution — the trade sold at effectively the peak of what was available. The main caveat is risk, not return: the position sat -6.66% underwater at its worst, and the data here doesn't show whether that drawdown occurred overnight as planned or over a longer hold. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.