Mon Aug-31 19:05:59
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1944 Wed Aug-05 15:40:43
Tesla vs BYD: Only One Leader in The EV Race
Tesla reported Q2 2026 earnings with record deliveries but missed EPS consensus by 38.51% and saw operating income collapse 56.88%, resulting in negative free cash flow.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short TSLA (earnings: Tesla reported Q2 2026 earnings with record deliveries but missed EPS consensus by 38.51% and saw operating income collapse 56.88%, resulting in negative free cash flow.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short TSLA at close, exit next close (earnings: Tesla reported Q2 2026 earnings with record deliveries but missed EPS consensus by 38.51% and saw operating income collapse 56.88%, resulting in negative free cash flow.) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted short, verdict now PRICED (-1.49% since close, 314m after decision), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ▼ short | 3 | 324.23 | 322.74 | +4.47 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA S1 | +1.18% | -0.13% | Signal: correct — the bearish call worked; price fell after entry and the trade barely went underwater (worst unrealized only -0.13%). Timing: only mildly late — the stock was down just 0.87% from prior close at decision time, so most of the captured move occurred after entry; whether a larger post-earnings drop had already been absorbed before that isn't determinable from this data. Exit: this is the dominant factor — the trade banked ~+0.46% against a best unrealized of +1.18%, capturing well under half of the favorable move that was available. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.