🚨 Alert #1121 Wed Jul-29 13:03:21
Amazon's Kuiper Systems filed an FCC application for a 5,105-satellite constellation to provide direct-to-device mobile services, leveraging Globalstar's spectrum licenses to bypass carrier deals.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMZN (regulatory: Amazon's Kuiper Systems filed an FCC application for a 5,105-satellite constellation to provide direct-to-device mobile services, leveraging Globalstar's spectrum licenses to bypass carrier deals.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short TSLA (regulatory: Amazon's Kuiper Systems filed an FCC application for a 5,105-satellite constellation to provide direct-to-device mobile services, leveraging Globalstar's spectrum licenses to bypass carrier deals.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 long TSLA, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close -3.57% |
| S4 | AMZN | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long AMZN at close, exit next close (regulatory: Amazon's Kuiper Systems filed an FCC application for a 5,105-satellite constellation to provide direct-to-device mobile services, leveraging Globalstar's spectrum licenses to bypass carrier deals.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 85 long (decision 4760) for S4 AMZN exiting 2026-07-30] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ▲ long | 4 | 229.26 | 226.89 | -9.48 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN S1 | +1.54% | -0.97% | Signal: Mixed — the stock did rise as much as +1.54% while open, so the bullish read had some validity, but it ultimately reversed below entry; the data here doesn't tell us whether the Kuiper news itself drove either move. Timing: Not the problem — price was flat at decision time (-0.08% from prev close, 0.00% last 30m), so the trade wasn't chasing a move that had already occurred. Exit: This is the dominant factor. The trade exited at -1.03%, essentially the worst point of the entire holding period (worst unrealized -0.97%), after having +1.54% available — the exit gave back the full favorable move and captured the bottom instead. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.