🚨 Alert #1092 Tue Jul-28 20:32:33
Nvidia announced the full open sourcing of its core AI software stack, including CUDA and Triton, under the Apache 2.0 license to strengthen ecosystem adoption amid intensifying hardware competition.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (product: Nvidia announced the full open sourcing of its core AI software stack, including CUDA and Triton, under the Apache 2.0 license to strengthen ecosystem adoption amid intensifying hardware competition.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -6.02% · Δ 30m +1.60% · px 465.17 (prev 494.95) → close -1.98% |
| S4 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (product: Nvidia announced the full open sourcing of its core AI software stack, including CUDA and Triton, under the Apache 2.0 license to strengthen ecosystem adoption amid intensifying hardware competition.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ▲ long | 5 | 197.72 | 197.69 | -0.15 | closed |
| S4 | NVDA | ▲ long | 5 | 197.72 | 190.51 | -36.05 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S1 | +0.14% | -0.34% | Signal: The bullish call didn't materialize — after entry the stock never moved more than +0.14% and drifted essentially flat, so the predicted upside simply wasn't there in this window. Timing: Some of the move had already occurred by entry (price was up 0.69% from the prior close, and entry at 197.72 was above that), but with no continuation afterward, timing can't be cleanly separated from the signal just failing. Exit: The -0.15 USD result is near the middle of a very tight +0.14%/-0.34% range — the exit captured roughly what was available, since there was almost nothing to capture. The dominant factor is signal: the news-driven bullish thesis produced no post-entry move at all. |
| NVDA S4 | +0.26% | -3.73% | Signal: wrong. The predicted overnight drift never materialized — NVDA fell ~3.65% from entry, and the best unrealized gain was a negligible +0.26%, so there was essentially no upside to capture. Timing was not the issue: only +0.69% had moved before entry, so the trade wasn't chasing an exhausted move. Exit: the mechanical next-close exit landed near the worst unrealized (-3.65% vs. -3.73% trough), but given the +0.26% peak, no realistic exit would have salvaged much. Dominant factor: the directional signal was simply wrong — the open-source news did not produce the expected drift. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.